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HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 05: Framber Valdez #59 of the Houston Astros reacts after striking out J.T. Realmuto #10 of the Philadelphia Phillies to get out of the third inning in Game Six of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park on November 05, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
The ace of the rotation for the Houston Astros' 2022 World Series title run is gone, with AL Cy Young Justin Verlander opting to join the New York Mets via free agency on Monday. Astros fans shouldn't fret too much, however, even with the future Hall of Famer taking his talents to Queens.
Houston led the American League with a 2.90 ERA and .212 opponent's batting average in the regular season, and Verlander's career-low 1.75 ERA certainly played a key part in this success. The 39-year-old was also a bit unreliable in the playoffs, however, ranking near the bottom of all pitchers with a 5.85 ERA and .280 opponent's batting average in the 2022 postseason. With the Astros' No. 1 starter struggling, various other arms stepped up to help Houston secure the second championship in franchise history.
As the Verlander era disappears into the rearview, here's a look at how the Astros can replace the three-time Cy Young winner's production.
Ace in place
While Houston's quote, unquote ace won't be with the team in 2023, the heir apparent for the Opening Day starter slot—Framber Valdez—is a player that would have already been the No. 1 guy in a handful of MLB rotations.
The 29-year-old has steadily increased his production since stepping into a full-time starting role in 2020, posting ERAs of 3.57, 3.14 and 2.82, respectively, over the last three years. He went 17-6 in 2022 while leading the American League with 202 1/3 innings pitched, 827 batters faced and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, making his first All-Star game appearance and finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young voting. Valdez also set an MLB record with 25 consecutive quality starts.
Then there's the postseason production. After giving up four hits and two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings with three walks and six strikeouts in one ALDS start, Valdez turned it up a notch in the ALCS and World Series. He went 3-0 with just two earned runs on 10 hits over his final three playoff outings, striking out 27 batters in 19 1/3 innings.
Some might say the Astros lost their ace. Others could argue a new one emerged in the 2022 postseason.
Cristian Javier #53 of the Houston Astros pitches in the fifth inning of Game 4 of the 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, November 2, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty ImagesContinued growth
The Astros' pitching staff didn't become one of the best in baseball on the back of one player. Au contraire. The growth of several pitchers has played an important role in the team's 2022 title run.
Cristian Javier was a part of the second no-hitter in World Series history in Game 4 against the Philadelphia Phillies, as he allowed one hit and zero runs with 14 strikeouts in his final two playoff starts. This followed up a regular season in which he posted a 2.54 ERA with a team-best 5.4 hits allowed per nine innings. Lance McCullers Jr. struggled in the World Series, but had impressive regular-season numbers in limited action, posting a 4-2 record and 2.27 ERA across eight starts. Rookie Hunter Brown had a 2-0 record and a 0.89 ERA in two starts and five relief outings in 2022, while Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia are proven pitchers and more-than-capable options for the back end of the rotation.
Manager Dusty Baker Jr. #12 of the Houston Astros takes the ball from Hunter Brown #58 as he is removed from the game against the New York Yankees during the eighth inning in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 22, 2022 in New York City.
Elsa/Getty ImagesFree agency
Astros owner Jim Crane said it himself last week, "you never have enough pitching." Given these comments, I'd expect at least one more arm capable of filling a starting role to join the mix—whether it be as a regular rotation piece or a hybrid reliever/spot starter.
Andrew Heaney, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Noah Syndergaard and Ross Stripling are a few notable veterans that were still on the market when Verlander departed, as laid out here. These are more low-risk, high-reward value plays, though. If the Astros really want to make a splash and bolster the top of their rotation, they could pursue Carlos Rodon.
This would be an expensive venture—Rodon's estimated annual salary value on Spotrac is $32,478,220, and entering his age-30 season, he is likely seeking a longer deal than Crane might be willing to dole out. But coming off back-to-back All-Star appearances and a pair of top-six Cy Young finishes, he'd also form a lethal one-two punch with Valdez that could pay major dividends come playoff time.